Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 8.390304 9.642281 10.992273 12.553093 14.304741 16.206614 18.424548
2026-01-04 6.570559 8.265538 10.236952 12.686668 15.635426 19.056134 23.309249
2026-01-11 5.548695 7.405066 9.672616 12.622671 16.332934 20.816195 26.611660
2026-01-18 4.730858 6.664836 9.134757 12.483286 16.861789 22.345146 29.676985
2026-01-25 4.164356 6.151000 8.788154 12.492160 17.498218 23.958931 32.844409
2026-02-01 3.735529 5.762898 8.550820 12.593969 18.222695 25.683848 36.203453
2026-02-08 3.323236 5.344323 8.218336 12.513806 18.661401 27.014565 39.064086
2026-02-15 2.964722 4.961157 7.892112 12.398986 19.018205 28.221485 41.780503
2026-02-22 2.706998 4.700363 7.714335 12.471233 19.624125 29.778416 45.025117
2026-03-01 2.548239 4.576193 7.725487 12.813951 20.628226 31.928392 49.182748
2026-03-08 2.286925 4.257672 7.406490 12.622046 20.810733 32.883334 51.641666
2026-03-15 1.984752 3.838539 6.890402 12.077944 20.411547 32.944681 52.769952
2026-03-22 1.881095 3.755859 6.920053 12.414890 21.409991 35.159655 57.227860
2026-03-29 1.763874 3.637270 6.879459 12.631703 22.226426 37.130730 61.397804
2026-04-05 1.607074 3.428743 6.665582 12.538253 22.526358 38.301890 64.369265
2026-04-12 1.461337 3.225377 6.442729 12.410036 22.754269 39.359002 67.191945
2026-04-19 1.349860 3.076544 6.304166 12.415216 23.198120 40.768624 70.611802
2026-04-26 1.262007 2.965615 6.225184 12.517770 23.807043 42.461959 74.538284
2026-05-03 1.158888 2.812099 6.053184 12.437579 24.089904 43.623979 77.637188
2026-05-10 1.061500 2.660000 5.870859 12.323531 24.301655 44.667919 80.569514
2026-05-17 0.993637 2.564736 5.791502 12.395336 24.843624 46.281090 84.491696
2026-05-24 0.959100 2.540456 5.851734 12.736250 25.886433 48.782191 89.980841
2026-05-31 0.874448 2.391903 5.646352 12.545358 25.938567 49.571528 92.590242